The dismissals may also provide some explanation, or at least context, for the variation between settlements to date and predicted ranges.All of that said, I reiterate my appreciation to NERA for their effort to keep track of what has happened so far.(The total number of lawsuits according to my tally, here, is only 36, but I am willing to go with their number for these purposes, which is close enough anyway.) Not only is the sample small, but it seems to have been amputated at a couple of critical points.That is, for reasons that are not explained in the report, the NERA dataset does not include either the Mercury Interactive settlement (7.5 mm) or the Vitesse Seminconduct settlement (.2 mm).Having made this rather provocative observation, NERA then concedes that only a fraction of the options backdating-related securities class action lawsuits filed have yet settled.Clearly one factor that may be involved is that the weakest cases may have settled first, a consideration that the NERA study expressly acknowledges.In a very interesting May 15, 2008 paper entitled “Do Options Backdating Cases Settle for Less?
In any event, an extreme result like that clearly pulls down the average.
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The other thing about NERA’s analysis is that as a result of the small dataset, extreme individual results could be skewing the average.
In particular, according to the report, the Rambus options backdating related securities class action lawsuit of million, was only 8.3% of predicted.